MCX gold price to trade sideways to weak this week, investors await US CPI inflation data; check support level

MCX gold price to trade sideways to weak this week, investors await US CPI inflation data; check support level

By Tapan Patel

Commodity prices traded higher with most of the commodities in the non-agro segment witnessing recovery during the week with Crude oil remained an exception on demand growth worries. Base metals gained on concerns over lower supply and weaker dollar. Gold prices traded higher with spot gold prices at COMEX ended 0.27% up at $1717 per ounce for the week. Gold October futures at MCX gained by 0.32% to Rs. 50529 per 10 gram despite a stronger rupee. The spot rupee rose by 0.27% to 79.58 against the dollar for the week. Gold ETFs extended outflows as holdings at SPDR Gold Shares declined to 967 tonnes from previous week’s 973 tonnes. The CFTC data showed that money managers have decreased their net long positions in gold by 19509 lots in the last week. 

Silver prices traded higher with spot silver prices at COMEX surged by 4.53% to $18.86 per ounce for the week. MCX Silver December futures rallied by 4.58% to Rs. 55050 per KG for the week. Silver prices rebounded sharply with recovery in industrial metals over higher demand prospects and lower supply worries. The CFTC data showed that Money managers have increased their bearish silver bets by 3573 lots in the last week.

Bullion prices ended higher, reporting the first weekly gain in the last four weeks supported by dollar decline and safe haven buying. The traders and investors weighed on the dollar dragging down from 20 year highs over inflation worries and slowdown fears. The dollar index declined and precious metals rallied despite a push from US FED for another outsized rate hike to keep inflation down, when the central bank meets on Sept. 21. The Fed is committed to tackle inflation reaching 40-year highs on rising energy and food costs. The EuroZone slowdown worries are growing with a surge in energy cost ahead of the crucial winter season as industries are forced to shut operations due to high energy prices. The dollar index ended 0.48% down at 109 hitting a low of 108.35 for the week. The market players are awaiting key US CPI data due on Tuesday this week. 

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We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down this week with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1740 per ounce and support at $1676 per ounce. At MCX, Gold October prices have near term resistance at Rs. 51500 per 10 grams and support at Rs. 49800 per 10 gram. COMEX Spot silver has near term resistance at $19.40 per ounce with support at $17.90 per ounce. MCX Silver December has important resistance at Rs. 57000 per kg and support at Rs. 52500 per kg

(Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own.)