Sena vs Sena verdict today- The dispute and possible scenarios – EXPLAINED

Sena vs Sena verdict today: The dispute and possible scenarios – EXPLAINED

Maharashtra Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar is set to pronounce his verdict on 34 petitions filed by the two rival factions of the Shiv Sena seeking the disqualification of 54 MLAs following the vertical split in the party engineered by incumbent Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s rebellion against his predecessor Uddhav Thackeray in June 2022. The Speaker is likely to deliver the verdict at around 4 PM.

The Speaker’s decision follows a reprimand from the apex court which said in October that he cannot “defeat the orders of the Supreme Court” by delaying a decision on the disqualification petitions. The court had set a deadline of December 31 and later extended it to January 10 for the Speaker to decide on the petitions.

The first set of disqualification pleas was filed by the Uddhav faction against 16 MLAs including Shinde for skipping a meeting convened by Sunil Prabhu, the leader appointed chief whip by the former’s faction. On June 27, a fresh set of disqualification petitions were filed against 22 MLAs of the SHinde faction. Two more petitions were subsequently filed to take the tally to 40.

The Shinde Sena hit back with petitions seeking the disqualification of 14 MLAs of the Uddhav faction. The petitions were later challenged by Prabhu in the Supreme Court. In May 2023, almost a year after the petitions were filed, the Supreme Court said that the Speaker must rely on the original constitution of the party to decide on the disqualification proceedings. The court also asked the Speaker to refrain from arriving at a decision based on which faction has more numbers.

“This is not a game of numbers, but of something more. The structure of leadership outside the Legislative Assembly is a consideration which is relevant to the determination of this issue,” it said, adding, “Thus, the adjudication of the Speaker on whether a member must be disqualified would also depend on the decision of the Speaker recognising one of the two (or more) Whips.”

What are the likely scenarios?

As the legislators await the SPeaker’s verdict with bated breath, all eyes will be on the ramifications of the decision which comes just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections and the Assembly elections scheduled in the state later this year. An adverse decision could put the BJP in a spot since it claimed that forming a government in Maharashtra in alliance with the breakaway faction of the Sena was in accordance with the Constitution. Numerically though, the BJP does not have much to worry about since the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP is already part of the ruling alliance.

The Uddhav faction, on the other hand, stands to benefit in both cases. If the decision goes in its favour, it gives him a much-needed boost to take on the BJP and brandish the verdict as a validation of its claim that the government was formed “illegally”. A decision against it will still strengthen the sympathy wave in his favour that Uddhav can use effectively during the elections.

In either case, the verdict is likely to be challenged in the Supreme Court. The outcome of the Shiv Sena crisis is also likely to set a precedent for the NCP dispute after a vertical split in the party following Ajit’s fallout with his uncle and party founder Sharad Pawar.