Bullish momentum returns to Indian markets as Nifty eyes 21200 amidst strong indicators

Bullish momentum returns to Indian markets as Nifty eyes 21200 amidst strong indicators

By Anand James

Seven weeks after coming off from the record peak in December 2022, Nifty is back within its vicinity. Nifty has now pushed above a one month range that had kept a lid on directional moves, and kept VIX near record lows. While this range breakout gave an optimism, the bearish overhang that had prevailed through August, also led some traders to watch with suspicion that successive days of close beyond two standard deviations from the 20 day SMA.

Meanwhile, Bank Nifty has also closed above its 50 day SMA, for the first since early August, a signal that both the major benchmark indices whose options are the most actively traded, are geared to leap higher. Bank Nifty has closed just within the Bollinger band’s upper extremity, and any dips to the 50 day SMA, now placed at 44,974 could be used to enter an uptrend.

USDINR on the other hand, was gearing for 83.44 breach, has multiple attempts to do so has found rejection trades, indicating exhaustion. We are hence watchful of a reversal, but until 82.93 is breached, we may still harbour hopes of upswing, as the months leading upto general elections have traditionally seen USDINR going up. Towards this end, we will keep the 83.44-86 move in the horizon, while waiting for adequate dips to re enter longs.

(Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. Views expressed are author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)