ITC stock rating ‘buy’- Emkay initiates with Rs 525 target, cites growth, value unlocking; check upside

ITC stock rating ‘buy’: Emkay initiates with Rs 525 target, cites growth, value unlocking; check upside

Analysts at Emkay Research have initiated coverage on ITC shares with a “buy” recommendation and a target price of Rs 525 per share by June 2024. The recommendation is based on the company’s strong growth potential, a significant shift in prospects post the COVID-19 pandemic, and the expectation of value unlocking opportunities. Emkay’s target price implies a 15.7% upside from yesterday’s closing price of Rs 453.6 per share.

The analysis values ITC’s cigarettes business at 21 times price-to-earnings ratio (PER), accounting for approximately 46% of the target price. The “Other FMCG” segment is valued at 7 times June 2025 sales estimate, representing around 27% of the target price. The report emphasises that revenue scale-up in the non-cigarettes business will lead to better margins, while lower capital expenditure requirements will enhance the returns profile of ITC’s non-cigarette operations.

The analysis notes a significant shift in ITC’s prospects compared to the challenging times experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company’s cash-cow business, cigarettes, is projected to gain structurally, thanks to the government’s accommodating taxation stance for the segment. The “Other FMCG” business, which is focused on premium offerings, supports ITC’s margin expansion. Additionally, ITC’s Hotels and Paper businesses have witnessed a strong recovery, contributing to healthy margins.

ITC’s capital allocation strategy is also viewed as comforting by the analysts. With its backend operations largely in place, the company does not require substantial capital expenditure for its businesses. Incremental capex will be directed towards capacity expansion in the paper business, building backend infrastructure in the FMCG segment, and technological upgrades. The analysts consider ITC’s ahead-of-time capacity build-up as a competitive edge, providing a long growth runway for the company.

The report highlights that ITC has a policy of dividend pay-out of 80-85%, reflecting its self-sufficiency in funding its own growth. Over the last two decades, approximately 74% of the operating cash flow has been returned to shareholders as dividends.

Considering the steady re-rating of ITC’s stock in the past year, the analysts expect sustained value unlocking opportunities, especially as the company explores alternative structures for its Hotels and Infotech divisions. Cross synergies and ambitious growth plans in the FMCG business are anticipated to drive high-growth and value-creating operations. ITC’s attractive free cash flow and dividend yield of 3% and 4%, respectively, make it an appealing investment option.

While downside risks include potential double-digit taxation on cigarettes, entry into low-margin or long-gestation FMCG categories, and the overhang from the Government of India’s stake sale in SUUTI, the analysts maintain their positive outlook on ITC’s growth prospects.