Reliance Industries share price jumps 1% today after strong Q4 earnings; Should you buy, hold or sell RIL stock-

Reliance Industries share price jumps 1% today after strong Q4 earnings; Should you buy, hold or sell RIL stock?

Reliance Industries Ltd share price jumped 1% to Rs 2372.25 on Monday after Mukesh Ambani-led company’s net profit surged 19.1% to Rs 19,299 crore on-year in Q4FY23, beating analysts’ expectations. RIL revenue for the January-March quarter rose 2.1% on-year, to Rs 2.16 lakh crore. RIL shares have risen over 6.5% in past one month, but have fallen nearly 15% in the last one year.Should you buy, hold or sell RIL shares?Goldman Sachs: Buy – Target Price: Rs 2890

“RIL 4Q EBITDA of Rs384bn (+9% QoQ) was largely in line with GSe. Net profit was 11% below GSe on higher-than-expected depreciation while interest expense was largely in line. Our updated scenario analysis implies a 12% downside in our bear case and 83% upside in the bull case. Reiterate Buy (on CL),” said analysts at Goldman Sachs.

B&K Securities: Buy – Target Price: Rs 2791

“Our view of a strong earnings outlook is premised upon 1) RIL is set to increase production from MJ field in FY24F (~12 mmscmd rise), 2) strength in O2C earnings may continue for a few more quarters, ~1.5 mbd of new refining capacity which was scheduled to start in CY23 has got delayed and as polyester demand has likely bottomed out, 3) while telecom ARPU in 4QFY23 at Rs 178.8 was a tad disappointing,” said analysts at B&K Securities. Analysts have rolled forward valuation to be based on FY25F leading to a SOTP-based target price of Rs 2,845 per share (earlier Rs 2,791 per share), implying a 21% stock price upside.

HDFC Securities: Add – Target Price: Rs 2637

“Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,637/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses,” said analysts at HDFC Securities.

JM Financial: Buy – Target Price: Rs 2900

“We marginally tweak our estimates by 1% incorporating the FY23 results; our TP remains unchanged at INR 2,900. As highlighted in our Mar’23 note, the recent weakness in RIL’s share price, primarily due to concerns around high capex and resultant rising debt, has meant that its CMP is near our bear-case valuation of ~INR 2,000/share,” said analysts at JM Financial.

Kotak Securities: Buy – Fair Value: Rs 2800

“RIL Capex further rose to Rs444 bn in 4Q (versus Rs376 bn in 3Q). However, the reported net debt at Rs1.1 tn was flat qoq. With 5G capex likely peaking soon, we believe net debt has likely peaked. Reiterate BUY with a revised FV of Rs2,800 (Rs2,900 earlier),” said analyst at Kotak Securities.

Antique Stock Broking: Buy – Target Price: Rs 2844

“We incorporate higher depreciation and interest expense and assume a delay in telecom tariff hikes from FY24 earlier to FY25 now due to heightened competitiveness. Consequently, we lower FY24 and FY25 EBITDA estimates by 2% and PAT estimates by 7% respectively and cut our TP by 2% to INR 2,844,” said analysts at Antique Stock Broking.