Nifty to surpass 19700 or slip on RBI policy- See GIFT Nifty, FII data, F&O ban, crude, more before market opens

Nifty to surpass 19700 or slip on RBI policy? See GIFT Nifty, FII data, F&O ban, crude, more before market opens

The GIFT Nifty was flat during Tuesday’s early trading session, down by 0.03% at 19605.5, indicating a tepid opening for domestic indices NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 added 61.7 points to close at 19,632.55. On the other hand, Sensex gained 0.23% to end at 65,995.81.

“The domestic market started adopting a defensive stance as investors awaited crucial inflation data for both India and the US. The deflationary trend in China and downgrade of the US mid- and small-sized banks affected the market sentiment. However, a late recovery in the domestic market was supported by a positive uptick in the European market and hope of an optimistic RBI policy not impacting domestic economic growth,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

Asian Markets

Shares in the Asia-Pacific region were trading mixed on Thursday. China’s Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component were flat, up by 0.1% and 0.03% respectively. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was in the green, up 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.44% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.1%. The Taiwan Weighted index recorded a loss of 1.34%.

Crude Oil

Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Thursday after reaching fresh highs in the previous session as concerns about the Chinese economy offset the positive impact of steep drawdowns in U.S. fuel stockpiles and Saudi and Russian output cuts.

FII/DII Data

Foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth net Rs 644.11 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) sold shares worth net Rs 597.88 crore on 9 August, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

F&O Ban

The National Stock Exchange has Chambal Fertilisers, Delta Corp, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Hindustan Copper and Balrampur Chini Mills securities on its F&O ban list for 10 August. According to the NSE, stocks are prohibited in the F&O sector when they have exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). During the F&O ban period, no new positions are permitted for F&O contracts in that stock.

Bank Nifty Outlook

“Bank Nifty witnessed a volatile day of trade; the key hourly moving averages placed in the range 45,000 – 45,100 acted as a resistance and faced selling pressure. It did witness a pullback however it closed in the negative. The daily momentum indicator has a negative crossover which is a sell signal. Thus, this pullback should be used as a selling opportunity. On the downside, we expect 44,000 from a short-term perspective,” said Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Technical View

“Nifty is currently placed at the important resistance of down sloping trend line around 19,650-19,700 levels. A decisive move above this hurdle is expected to negate the bearish chart pattern and could open the next upside target of around 19,900-20,000 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 19,460 levels,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

RBI Policy

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting will declare its policy decision later today. Overall, there is an expectation that the Central Bank may maintain the key lending rate at the current level of 6.5% today.