Nifty to show strength above 16500, avoid aggressive bets in Bank Nifty; add blue chips in staggered manner
时间:2024-06-17 09:41:04 阅读（143）
By Sameet Chavan
The Indian equity market tumbled on weekly F&O expiry day, tracking the global bourses, wherein the benchmark index NSE Nifty 50 plunged below the psychological mark of 16000 from the start of the session. The weakened macro factors have dampened the overall sentiments as we witness the relentless selling pressure in the equities. The index concluded Thursday’s session in red with another cut of over 2.22 per cent to settle at the 15808 level on the weekly expiry.
In the F&O space, we saw the addition of a few shorts in Nifty and long unwinding in the banking index. Stronger hands continue to curb liquidity in the Indian equity market and added bearish bets in index and stock futures segment. In the index options front, we saw build-up in 15800-16000 put strikes. On the other hand, 15800-16200 call strikes added fresh build-up in the coming weekly series.
Overall global weakness has poured in complete water on yesterday’s promise the banking stocks had left us with. But not to surprise, this is the perfect characteristic of a downtrend. Both Nifty and Nifty Bank have now approached their critical levels, so it would be interesting to see whether the oversold market decides to rebound first or continue to be with the recent trend. As far as levels are concerned, 34000 – 34500 has now become a sturdy wall; whereas a sustainable move below 33200 – 33000 would lead to some panic kind of situation in this space. One should avoid trading aggressively on both sides; because we tend to see a lot of whipsaws in such situations.
The ongoing rampage is due to the global macro factors, hence any improvement from the overseas market should act as a catalyst for the bulls. Technically, the bearish formation would only get discarded above the mentioned resistance zone. Until that time, one should remain cautious and keep close track of global and domestic developments. Also, traders are advised to avoid aggressive bets and look for stock-specific action, while investors could now seize this opportunity by initiating accumulation in good blue-chip companies but in a staggered manner.
(Sameet Chavan is a Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives at Angel One. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
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- tions and academic institutions have computed logistics costs, which are widely quoted to stress the point that India is a country with high logistics costs.” In addition to the ones I mentioned earlier, NCAER cites three—Armstrong and Associates (2017), an estimate of 13% of GDP; CII (2015), an estimate of 10.9% of GVA; and NCAER (2019), an estimate of 8.9% of GVA. Clearly, there are variations in what is being measured and how. This new NCAER report uses supply and use tables. What does it find? In 2021-22, logistics costs had an estimated range of between 7.8% and 8.9%. In 2014-15, they had an estimated range of between 8.3% and 9.4%. There has been a decline over time (with a transient increase in 2017-18 and 2018-19). It cannot be anyone’s case that this new NCAER report is the last word on the subject. But it is a beginning, with a clear methodology. And two points emerge. First, logistics costs aren’t as bad as they are often made out to be. Second, they have declined over time (also evident from LPI).
Logistics, good or bad, are driven by the states and the commerce ministry has a LEADS (Logistics Ease Across Different States) report, based on perceptions. The 2023 version was released in December. Since states are heterogenous, in the reporting, they are divided into four groups—coastal, landlocked, north-east, and UTs. States that do well are called achievers. Nomenclature matters. Thus, states that are middling aren’t called average. They are called fast movers. States that are sub-par are called aspirers. Let me highlight coastal states, since 75% of export cargo is estimated to originate from them. Among coastal states, ones that do well are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. The ones that lag are Goa, Odisha, and West Bengal. While India’s logistics performance may have improved over time, that’s not true of every state. Some have slipped. Most states have a state-level logistics policy, including Goa and Odisha. West Bengal, bottom of the pecking order in the coastal category, doesn’t have one. To quote from LEADS 2023, “Looking ahead, the State (West Bengal) could benefit from formulating a State Logistics Master Plan and State Logistics Policy to drive efficiency improvements and facilitate investments within the logistics sector and undertake consultation with the logistics stakeholders for educating and informing them about the initiatives State is undertaking for the development and improvement of logistics sector.”
Logistics has been talked about for a long time and India has also focused on improving performance. We are now getting some precise data on measurement and quantification. That helps.
Bibek Debroy, chairman, EAC-PM. Views are personal.
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