The maritime dimension of the Israel-Hamas conflict 

The maritime dimension of the Israel-Hamas conflict 

By Commodore Anil Jai Singh, IN (Retd)

The massive Israeli response to the unprovoked Hamas attack on the 7thof October shows no sign of abating. Israel, or more specifically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is clearly bent upon annihilating Gaza and its Palestinian population in attempting to eradicate Hamas. More than two and a half months have elapsed and the mighty Israeli war machine has been reduced to mercilessly bombing cities, hospitals, schools and civilians, including women and children with limited success in ‘eradicating’ Hamas. Besides the humanitarian crisis, the continuation of this conflict runs the dangerous risk of escalation, as other militant groups in the region are stepping into the conflict in sympathy for the Palestinians and the larger Arab cause. While the Arab states have been guarded in their criticism of Israel’s actions so far, militant groups in the region with an anti-Israel agenda may not be as patient.

About 12% of global trade transits through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea as it offers the quickest route between the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans. In an interconnected world where trade dependencies transcend geographies, any disruption to the safe movement of trade and energy will have a major impact on the global economy. The immediate fallout of the Houthi attack was threefold. Firstly, it introduced the active participation of the world’s leading navies including the US Navy, which were primarily deployed to ensure the safe passage of merchant shipping by intercepting and neutralising the incoming missiles and drones, but without taking any retaliatory kinetic action. Secondly, it led to shipping companies re-routing their ships around the Cape of Good Hope which increased the travel time by about a week and an additional 3500 nautical miles ( over 6000 kms), with consequential effects on cost. Thirdly, it has led to an exponential increase in the insurance premium for ships venturing into the Red Sea because of the increased risk. These three factors together will have a tremendous impact on the global economy for some time to come. It may be recalled that the grounding of a merchant ship, MV Evergiven in the Suez Canal a few years ago, which had led to a six day disruption in the passage of ships through the Canal, had cost the global economy about US$ 400,000 per hour.

It has been reported that about 15 ships have been targeted in the Red Sea by the Houthi rebels so far. Fortunately, these attacks have been neutralised by the US Navy and the other navies participating in Operation Prosperity Guardian, as it has been named. The Indian Navy has not been a direct participant in this operation, but has been active in the Indian Ocean. It responded to the hijacking of the MV Roen in the Arabian Sea by despatching a guided missile destroyer, INS Kochi, which was operating in the region, and a P8I long range maritime patrol aircraft to shadow the ship. It also successfully evacuated an injured crew member from the ship.

On 23 December, a Liberian flagged chemical tanker, MV Chem Pluto, on its way from Jubail to New Mangalore, was damaged by a drone attack a little over 200 nautical miles from Porbandar. Immediate assistance was provided by the navy and the Coast Guard, which safely escorted the ship to Mumbai. Since nobody has claimed responsibility for the attack, the US promptly blamed it on Iran, who in turn were equally quick in terming this allegation is baseless. A forensic investigation is presently underway and once complete, should provide more detailed information about the kind of drone, the country of its manufacture and the likely direction from which the attack came. Prima facie, it does seem unlikely that the Houthi rebels will target a stray ship so far in the Indian Ocean; they have clearly stated that their aim is to target Israel-bound ships in the Red Sea. While it is difficult for a rebel group to positively identify which ship is bound for Israel, this ship was headed in the opposite direction. Similarly, despite the US allegation, there seems to be no reason for Iran to target an India-bound ship. The Defence Minister, Shri Rajnath Singh, commented on this incident during the commissioning ceremony of the Navy’s latest guided missile destroyer, INS Imphal, and emphatically stated that we will get the perpetrators even from the depths of the oceans, if need be. In the absence of any confirmation about the source of the attack, it will be interesting to see to what extent India will retaliate once the perpetrators are known; in any case this bravado at this stage seemed rather premature. Another ship, MV Saibaba, registered in Gabon also found itself being targeted and has been provided protection. The question is that since neither of these ships is registered in India, why we are reacting with such vehemence is difficult to understand, but complex ship ownership issues can lead to a lot of ambiguities, deliberate or otherwise.

India has stayed well clear of the Israel-Hamas conflict; its stand on various resolutions has been of calibrated neutrality in keeping with its zero-tolerance policy for terrorism in any form. It abstained from voting in the UN on the first resolution seeking a ceasefire because Hamas terrorism was not mentioned. However, on the last couple of occasions it has supported the resolution calling for a ceasefire to prevent further loss of innocent life and property. It also chose not to become a part of Operation Prosperity Guardian.

However, if this conflict escalates further, particularly in the maritime domain, and challenges the safe passage of shipping in the region, including India’s, can the country maintain a passive stand and not get involved? As the pre-eminent naval power in the Indian Ocean, the Indian Navy prides itself on being the first responder in a developing crisis, humanitarian or otherwise. It considers itself the region’s ‘preferred security partner’ and takes this responsibility very seriously. Its efforts at augmenting and enhancing the capacity and capability of regional maritime domain awareness through a multi- dimensional effort has led to various arrangements on information sharing and adopting best practices with other like-minded navies in the region. In a distinct departure from its earlier policy, it first became an associate member of the Combined Maritime Force (CMF), a combination of various multinational task forces deployed in the Indian Ocean to address different challenges, and has now become a full member. One of the CMF’s task forces (CTF 153) is specifically tasked for counter-terrorism. While understanding its regional and political sensitivities for not getting directly involved, the CMF would perhaps expect a more active role from India. This may include escorting convoys or individual ships through troubled waters and could even include repelling an attack on merchant shipping.

One of the fallouts of this conflict could be the revival of transnational threats like piracy and in a more extreme form, maritime terrorism, with proxy support from state and non-state actors. Even if this is not aimed directly at India, the country will get involved because of its dependence on the sea for its economic well-being, with 90% of its trade by volume, and over 80% of its oil and gas travelling over the sea. As India grows into a US$ 5 trillion economy within the next couple of years and a US$ 10 trillion economy by the end of this decade or so, its dependence on the maritime domain for its trade, energy and resource requirements will grow exponentially. Hence ensuring the security of its sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and maintaining a rules-based order at sea is a critical strategic imperative for India, not only for its own self, but for the region as a whole. Any disturbance or disruption could lead to grave implications for the global economy.

The Indian Navy has already deployed a sizable force of four guided missile destroyers and a guided missile frigate together with air assets to thwart any adventurism against shipping transiting through the region. This is a lot of firepower ranged against a non-state adversary, but such is the asymmetric nature of the non-traditional threat – it ties down traditional assets disproportionate to the actual threat; a similar situation had prevailed earlier when more than 20 navies from across the world had been involved in combating piracy off Somalia between 2008 and 2013.

From a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective, a stable West Asia is very important for India. With a large Indian diaspora working in the region, and a major dependence on the oil and gas supplies from the region, any disturbance or disruption to the fragile peace in the region can jeopardise Indian interests, including the recent India-led foreign policy initiatives like the I2U2 and the IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe-Economic Corridor), both of which are at an early stage of implementation. Israel, which is an important partner in both, is in no mood to relent even at the risk of escalating this conflict across the region. The killing of an Iranian General in Syria has riled Iran, which has begun talking of consequences, that would lead to greater regional instability

The present situation in West Asia is fraught with uncertainty. It is difficult to predict which way the tide of this conflict will turn. A quick cessation of hostilities also seems remote at present with the US using its veto power in the Security Council to stymie any hope of a ceasefire; this has perhaps emboldened Prime Minister Netanyahu to continue his military offensive in Gaza. Escalation and a greater involvement of Iran-backed militant groups is a distinct possibility. While the land conflict may remain restricted to a limited geographical area, its spillover into the maritime domain is an unwelcome development with grave consequences for regional security and the global economy. It is important that navies in the region coordinate their activities through various information sharing mechanisms to ensure the safety of the sea lanes, but there too, there also seem to be some differences of opinion, even amongst among allied navies, and a reluctance to be a part of the US-led effort to protect merchant ships from Houthi missile and drone attacks. The Chinese Navy (PLA Navy), despite having ships deployed off Djibouti, and with pretensions of becoming a regional maritime power, has steered clear of this crisis so far. The Indian Navy’s sizable deployment in the western Indian Ocean is in keeping with our policy and reinforces the importance of ensuring the safety of our shipping in the Indian Ocean.

The author is the Vice President of the Indian Maritime Foundation and an Honorary Adjunct Fellow of the National Maritime Foundation.

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