Dollar remains subdued ahead of New Year holidays

Dollar remains subdued ahead of New Year holidaysBy Gaurang Somaiya

Rupee rose sharply following suspected dollar inflow and lower trade deficit number in November. Data showed deficit narrowed $20.58 billion in November as compared to $31.46 billion in the previous month.

This fiscal, India’s merchandise exports stood at $278.80 billion, down 6.51% annually, while merchandise imports stood at $445.15 billion, down 8.67% annually. For the week, the rupee traded in a narrow range and volatility remained in check following active RBI intervention. Latest data released from the RBI showed forex reserves rose to the highest level in 20-months to $615.9 billion.

Another Fed member pushed back expectations of upcoming cuts in borrowing costs. Weakness extended after the core PCE index grew at 2.6% (YoY) in November compared to 2.9% in the previous month.

This week, on the domestic front, no major data is expected to be released and global factors will continue to remain in focus. From the US, pending sales and Chicago PMI number to gauge a view for the dollar.

We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 82.00 and 82.50. As far as the dollar index is concerned we expect it to trade with a negative bias and quote in the range of 100.50 and 102.50.

Last week, it was the Japanese Yen that was in focus ahead of the bank of Japan policy statement. The Japanese Yen was in focus after the BoJ maintained ultra-loose policy settings in a widely expected move.

The BOJ governor said prices and wages appeared to be moving in the right direction with labour unions and big firms signalling the chance of sustained wage gains next year. The central bank also left unchanged a pledge to ramp up stimulus “without hesitation” if needed.

(Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)