L&T Infotech rating – Reduce- A disappointing quarter for the company

L&T Infotech rating – Reduce: A disappointing quarter for the company

Larsen & Toubro Infotech (LTI) disappointed with a weak set of Q4FY22 earnings on various fronts. Revenues were way below our estimate at $570 mn (+3.6% q-o-q CC vs Isec. est. of +5.3% q-o-q CC). We would like to highlight that in LTI also (like Infy and TCS), we have seen softening of BFS growth – just 2.8% q-o-q vs average of 10% in last 3 quarters. For LTI, H1 is seasonally weak and we expect more moderation of BFS growth ahead – BFS revenue growth always moves in tandem with overall revenue growth of LTI. Even Top-5 client growth was at a six-quarter low at ~3% q-o-q (average of 6% in last four quarters).

US posted soft growth of 2.5% q-o-q but Europe continued to grow at 5.8% q-o-q. Though management guided for strong demand momentum in Europe and hasn’t seen any impact on client conversations, we believe uncertainty, rising cost and wage inflation may delay client budget decisions, softening growth momentum in Europe.

LTI has impressed with strong growth and rebound in large deal wins in FY22. Our view on the business is unchanged and the company is well positioned to gain market share with its strong business model but valuations of 38x/31x on FY23/24 EPS look expensive to us in the current macro environment and given likely slowdown in revenue/ earnings momentum ahead.

We were below consensus estimates by ~6% for FY23/24 earlier. However, now due to a cut in our revenue/margin estimates, our EPS cuts stand at 5%/4% for FY23/24, respectively, and we believe for consensus it could be much higher. We are estimating revenue growth of 19%/16% with EPS of Rs 143/178 for FY23/24, respectively. LTI trades at an expensive valuation of 38x/31x for FY23e/24e; we downgrade to Reduce from Hold. We value LTI at 28x (vs 32x earlier) on FY24e EPS of Rs 178 to arrive at a TP of Rs 4,986 (prior: Rs 5,921).