Crude oil prices end week positively amidst middle east tensions and supply disruptions, eyes on OPEC+ meeting in February

Crude oil prices end week positively amidst middle east tensions and supply disruptions, eyes on OPEC+ meeting in FebruaryBy Bhavik Patel

Crude oil prices have closed this week on positive note as tensions in the Middle East continue to provide support. Despite huge inventory draw from US which is believed to be year ending clearing of inventory to minimize inventory tax, prices continued to slide this week but last 2 trading session saw prices recovering and reversing after renewed attacks by Houthi on cargo ship in Red Sea and worsening Israel-Iran confrontation.

Another positive news for crude was protestors shut down Libya’s largest oil field, the 300,000 b/d capacity El Sharara. OPEC+ is schedule to meet in February instead of January which was taken negatively by market as lack of consensus over production cuts. OPEC+ will meet without Angola but are desperate to project an image of cohesion and unity. The meeting will assess the implementation of voluntary production cuts totalling 2.2 million b/d.

In MCX, Crude is stuck in range of 5900-6200. Trend is neutral with RSI_14 trading at 49. There are no candlestick pattern suggesting any definitive trend and we believe next wave of price action will come in form of situation in Red Sea. Next trigger also would be OPEC+ meet in Feb.

Next week, we still believe bias would be neutral to bullish trend as crude had taken multiple support around 5900 emerging as strong support. On the upside resistance is around 6200 and then to 6300. Any dips around 6050 can be taken an opportunity to go long with target of 6250 and stoploss of 5900.

(Bhavik Patel is a commodity and currency analyst at Tradebull Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)